I actually doubt the US state department ever said that, exactly. They're diplomats, are very careful about their wording, and are unlikely to promise something they aren't totally sure about.

I'm going by the trajectory of the now >20% interest rate, the fact they're politically covering for massive military spending with massive handouts, the amount of assets still in Russia and the recent reports of a surge in bankruptcies. I don't know if it will be two weeks or a year, but they can't keep this up the same way forever.

Yeah, that's one of my main sources too.

This is what I mean - they need money to pay for their military industry, ever-scarcer volunteers and a bunch of feel-good handouts like cheap mortgages on top of it. They've basically just been burning the economic furniture to make that happen (including the old Soviet stockpiles), and at some point raising the interest rate will get diminishing returns. Eventually, their spending is going to come up against what they actually physically have and lose, and then they'll get hyperinflation.

It's been suggested they could just muscle through that, and I can't rule it out, but Russia is not Nazi Germany or even Venezuela. Putin's regime has pretty much discouraged ideology of any kind in favour of cynical patronage, so once all the rubles they have to slosh around are worthless they're kind of in uncharted territory.

The CIA wishes they were even a tenth as competent as you think they are.

Go read any of the declassified reports of CIA activity, starting with the Church commission.

Or the actual events of Benghazi.

The truth is, the CIA is full of bumbling chucklefucks who have no clue if the actions they take will have the effect they want.

They can do a lot of damage, but like you, they also tend to believe the Hollywood myth making.

This belief doesn't make them any more competent, but it does make them more reckless and dangerous.

What's the base interest rate in russia again?

Oh, that's right. 21%pa

Very healthy. much strong.

This is not a special military operation. It involves the citizens of both nations directly involved.

The War in Afghanistan. The War in Iraq. The War in Gaza.

The War in Ukraine. Started by Russia after their puppet government was ousted in Ukraine.

GDP can increase during a war, but that's not as beneficial as growth during peace. After all the military equipment produced doesn't last long or provides much long term value to the economy. A civilian truck, excavator, or train locomotive can create more value for an economy for decades. A trank or artillery piece will only last for a few months during war and only causes destruction, no creation. So yeah, nominally the economy might increase, but all that labor might be for nothing in the end.

It has been very impressive how Russia transformed its economy and circumvented sanctions. Production of military equipment is high and still increasing in parts. Goods for domestic consumption are also doing okay and standard of living hasn't fallen much.

Of course none of this is sustainable and has only been achievable by all kinds of tricks, but for now it works.

Lol, no.

Smartest ml user

What is SMO?

Isn't that the lie Putin told the world about the Russian war of aggression and invasion of Ukraine?

3 days, right?