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Conspiracies
(lemmy.ml)
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this post was submitted on 02 Jan 2025
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If you pick one you're 5% likely to pick the right one and be 100% correct.
You're 95% likely to pick the wrong one. Then you miss the conspiracy that is true and you believe in one that is not true so 18/20 = 90% correct.
Average out the probabilities and it should turn out to be something like 90.5%.
Edit:I may be off on the maths now that I think about it.