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Biggest Lie
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this post was submitted on 27 Dec 2024
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Balatro
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It’s not hard to see why people get bothered by Wheel. When you play a Wheel card it’s a 1 in 4 chance in the way that it’s like rolling a 1 on a d4, always the same no matter how many you play. But physiologically it feels like it should be like drawing a spade from a deck of cards, the odds should get higher as you draw non-winning cards.
Fun fact, there are some games that actually cheat for you by progressively increasing your chances during a series of failures until you win. Then this resets to the actual probability displayed.
yup xcom actually does this in favor of the player unless you play on the highest difficulty.
Consecutive missed shots your soldier makes adds a hidden bonus chance, consecutive shots hit by aliens add a hidden penalty
Spotify does that as well. People don't like when a song recently played on shuffle gets played again, so Spotify doesn't do that.
You mean even across playlists?
Because if you shuffle a single playlist, of course everything would only appear once.
That's called the gambler's fallacy and it's a really common cognitive bias.
Plus, I think because people don't play it often (as in maybe a few times each game at most) it feels more often than it is. Like you see it twice and pass, but and use it twice and it fails, it would be easy to misremember it as buying four times. Then if that happens every time you might begin to think "this never works!" When in reality you're not playing it as often as you think you are.
The trick isn’t to play the Wheel for its stated function, what the Wheel is for is to increment tarot_played without altering the deck state in a negative or unhelpful fashion. If it activates, that’s just a bonus.