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this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2024
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With trans people making up 0.5-1.6% of the US population, wouldn't it be strange if not a single school shooter was trans?
That question lead me down a rabbit hole: There have been 417 school shootings since Columbine in 1999 https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/interactive/school-shootings-database/
I don't have statistics on the number of school shootings perpetrated by multiple people. But I suspect that it's a miniscule number. So I'm going to go with 417 individuals carrying out acts counted as school shootings. And not to try to be John Oliver or something, but what counts as a school shooting may be as little as this numbnuts who shot them self in the leg in a high school parking lot https://www.wptv.com/news/region-the-glades/belle-glade/lockdown-lifted-at-glades-central-high-school-following-shooting.
0.5% of 417 is 2.1 and 1.6% is 6.7.
Meaning that somewhere between 2 and 7 trans school shooters would indicate that trans people are just as likely as cis people to carry out school shootings. That only a single shooter has been trans, may not be statistically significant, as we're dealing with integers and it's pretty darn close.
So I'm left to conclude that being trans isn't significant in being a school shooter. Trans people may just be as fucked up as the rest of us.
What I'm more interested in is how the trans man in Nashville in 2023 would have counted, if this statistic didn't only cover until 2022 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1463155/active-shooters-us-schools-by-gender/
Your calculation doesn't track. Although i agree with your overarching point, the percentage of trans people in the US between 1999 and now would've been on an upward trajectory, so your calculations would have to account for that
A larger fraction of the population in most western countries are certainly openly trans now, than were in 1999. But I don't know about all trans people, I think the fraction has stayed the same, but coming out has become easier (I'm not saying that it's easy, I'm saying that I believe that it's easier than in 1999)
But let's assume that you're right, and fewer people used to be trans compared to the population size. That would mean fewer expected school shootings by trans people. Which could explain how the expected interval in my calculations is 2-7 shooters while we've only seen one. Once again confirming that trans people are just people.