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I lost hope(fr this time)
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this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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Hey, I study curves of climate change for decades now, and can tell you there is hope.
The world probably just passed peak global emissions - mainly due to China, which counts for a lot more than USA, whose emissions were falling anyway - that trend may slow down but not stop - as renewables are cheaper now. China is manufacturing most renewable stuff now, but the science that drove the transition was led by europe and US, the work wasn't wasted. Indeed, peak emissions is not peak concentration, and there's a lot of inertia in the deep ocean and ice-caps, so temperatures will keep rising during my lifetime, but peak temperature, at least below 2ºC, is foreseeable now, we are succeeding to bend those curves.
That wasn't the case when I lost hope, due to the gap between climate science and policy, back in late 1990s. But I’m still alive now, and glad of it, and would like to stay around longer to see how the future evolves, only wish I'd prepared better for later life, as it's a long path, not easy but challenges can be inspiring, no simple answers but the complexity is beautiful. Keep going.
thanks for your great message, I see some hopeful developments well as, because of technological disruption. It is worth to read some of it here. But I am worried about even more complex issues like biodiversity loss. Though there is absolutely still hope and possibility there to limit damage, it is even more complicated to limit the damage. What do you think about that?
I'm not an expert on biodiversity, although I'd like to be. Of course extinction is forever, and habitat loss is exacerbated by climate feedbacks. But we have to accept change, making less fuss about protecting 'native species' (to me this feels rather like nativism wrt human immigration), and recognise that life on earth has suffered and survived worse calamities in geological history, so it will re-adapt to new situations, if we let plants and animals (including ourselves) move with the climate. We can't save all the old ecosystems (for example from considering thermodynamics of the symbiosis within coral reefs, I have little hope for their survival with combination of higher T and CO2 and SLR), but we might help create new opportunities for new ecosystems in new places. In this context, what matters is the rate of changes - as it takes time for trees to grow, soil to accumulate - rather than 'equilibrium' changes.
I don't know whether the OP was specifically reacting to lack of progress at the Biodiv COP16 in Cali, as well as US election and climate news, but as an old hand at COPs too, I hadn't expected much, at the end of these circuses the only certainty is that the show must always go on (or diplomatic teams would kill their own job). In my opinion both COP processes have got bogged down talking mainly about money, and the UN system as a whole has not been working for many years, so we need some radical rethinking about global cooperation. Nevertheless on a local and regional level plenty of positive things are still happening. Also human population growth is also peaking, or heading that way, on all continents except Africa, and in many countries there is reforestation recently.
In general, bear in mind that many big science consortiums publish reports around this time of year, with extra-worrying headlines, in a bid to influence the COP processes. This is just part of the new-normal seasonal cycle, like the grey skies where I live, but not a reason to lose hope - brighter days will follow.
Yeah, I agree we have to accept change. In the long run sure, life will be okay, and a new totally unique array of different species will exist. I think next to a healthy stable biosphere, which biodiversity is a fundament of, a lot of people feel the grief/sadness because of the loss of all this natural beauty. Be it ecosystems or species. And I think a problem is, that sure nature adapted and shifted due to natural cycles. Deserts and jungles moved north/south/east/west depending on changing circumstances. But next to geographical limits, there is also the limit that a lot of ground is claimed and protected by culture. Be it agricultural or cities.
I don't totally agree to the COP progress, yes it is a slow process. And totally not moving at a speed we need or like. But at the moment it is the best we have. And as far as climate goes, a lot more has been done because of COPs then without them. Though I certainly hope we can develop better processes and cooperation between countries on these issues.