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this post was submitted on 27 Sep 2024
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Yes but by asking to stop it a decade ago naturally the rest of the timeline moves too, so we should've had a more aggressive push against oil and gas 2 decades ago or more and transitioned much sooner to green energy.
You can't just cut and paste progress forward. Battery technology is still two or three decades away from being able to fully replace fossil fuel use. Lithium batteries are not the answer there's just not enough lithium and it can't be refined fast enough. Even completely replacing fossil fuel electricity generation would take three decades and there's no technological hurdles, it's just scaling manufacturing and construction resources to build that many plants. The scale of these efforts is hard to grasp.
What stats are you working off of for those 3 decade estimates? Either way the point remains, the sentiment of "we should've done X decades ago" doesn't mean we should now be able to do it instantly, it just means we had the information and knowhow to start working towards it decades ago and we didn't do it.
It's not states estimates it's estimates to create 4,000 Terrawatt hours of generation capacity (fossil fuel capacity in the US). To put that in context that's 2,000 Hoover dams $1,600,000,000,000 or 60 years of spending the whole GDP. Looks like my 30 year forecast was overly optimistic.
Transportation has technicological hurdles, no amount of effort can solve this problem without breakthroughs in technology. It'll be a long time before there is even a path to eliminating fossil fuels for transportation.