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this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2024
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I really hope this is true.
As in 2016, he's not appealing to the centrists. He's letting the Dems do that. Dems go center, he picks up the anti-war and anti-government side of the Dems looking for a molotov cocktail to throw at the military industrial complex. Gabbard and RFK are an attempt to ruse enough of the left that is fed up with big government and big military. Trump in 2016 won because he was a molotov cocktail while Hillary took the center. In 2020, the primaries presented a progressive alternative that excited the base. 2024, the Dems have decided to revive Hilary's strategy of camping the center, folding to the military industrial complex, and disenfranchising their base; likewise Trump is playing the anti-establishment dove. Trump won in 2016 like that. Maybe fewer people will be tricked this time after seeing what happened last time he was in office? Or that's just wishful thinking.
It doesn't matter if he scares off the center. In spite of the strong start, I see Kamala lining up to lose this election by copying Hilary's strategy of collecting the center and establishment. It gives me the jitters. Dems need to run on a progressive path forward, not joyful ignorance while they stoke the fires of war. They need a platform that excites enough voters for downballot races. They need to stand up to the problems in our systems of governing that Trump is offering to burn down which might accelerate some sort of change before we die of ecosystem collapse. Clock is ticking, and the voters may decide we need a kick in the ass if the Dems decide to cozy up to the military like in 1968.
While I agree with you, it shouldn't be forgotten that Hilary still had the popular vote. I think the Dem.s will still win due to Harris not being as hated as Hilary, likely better campaigning than Hilary, Trump being an abysmally bad candidate (just in terms of general political competency, regardless of his beliefs/positions; I think them winning will continue people not taking that point seriously enough), and Harris actually being able to bring out black (and, I would wager, Indian) voters.
I don't think that black people were necessarily excited about Hilary but they absolutely are about Harris. I think they can likely win like this; it won't be a landslide but it'll be O. K.
I agree with what you think they ought to be doing (I want to push the Overton window leftward and going back to the center after it's been pushed so much leftward over the last 8 years is both frustrating and bad policy) but I think Kamala has a bunch more shoring up than Hilary did. I also think it's going to convince Dem.s that this is the way to win; if Kamala continues to govern from the center rather than like her voting record in the Senate, I think we get the same rush to neoliberalism Clinton ushered in. But I'm hoping otherwise.