Penultimate Truth. Predicted containing the cattle using fear of something that doesn't even exist in reality.

Blade Runner

I've gotta go with Mad Max here. Between the words oil obsession, rising aggression and dumbing down of society I can't see it going any other way.

Wall-E by way of 1984.

I don't know about closest, but definitely most likely, Tank Girl. Basically, water and power will be extreme scarcities for the majority and a corporation that bottles up the water to keep it from becoming free through rain and owns all of central power grid will be the effective government. It will take a few more decades for the water to get bottled up by Nestlé, et al., and the water infrastructure to fail in more cities. And then the fossil fuel industry to run out of resources and collapse and thus leave only the few nuclear reactors as the only major power sources, without renewables investment, which can be grabbed by the water owners by saying they need the power to collect the water bottles and they need to "secure" the dangerous reactors with the military hardware they collected to protect "their" water sources from protesters and poor people over the years.

Contagion and Children of Men - while they didn't look far into the future and dealt with existing problems, it's still horrifyingly accurate.