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this post was submitted on 23 Mar 2024
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Hot damn. So I kind of understand why the Russians would dismiss this as a lie or a threat because yknow. War in Ukraine, Trump, etc, relations are bad to put it politely.
But can we talk about what kind of terrifying flex of power that is from US Intelligence? It's one thing to predict a terror attack on your own soil- sure your citizens quite rightfully won't like the privacy violations, but the national authorities are going to help you; so if your intelligence agency is worth the name it should stop most attacks.
But can you imagine having information access that's so damn good you can not only predict a terror attack in a nation that has an extremely vested interest in not letting you know what they're doing because they're running a war that you (and everyone else) don't like, but you feel completely confident TELLING THEM, which could risk your information sources if they're not properly hidden. This is like the Foreign Intelligence equivalent of being so far ahead of your opponent in a game that you start giving them sincere advice on how to play so that they don't get thrashed too badly.
It reminds me a bit of the US intelligence saying that Russia was going to invade Ukraine and attempt to make it all the way to Kiev while Russia was adamant that it would never happen.
The other thing to note is that all countries have an "obligation to report" which requires them to report evidence of terror attacks to any county that would be the victim, even if they are a hostile nation. As much as "US bad" is true, it's frankly refreshing to see us do the right thing so publicly, even if it was only as a way to make Putin look bad.
US intelligence called the day and the hour the invasion would start, as well as the route the first military group would take. I remember at the time people were speculating that Russia would call it off or change plans because their operation had been so thoroughly blown, while a lot of global media was just accusing the US of warmongering. Russia just plowed ahead with their invasion anyway.
It ended up being a good litmus test. The people who were being genuine admitted they were completely wrong, like Snowden. Others never said they were wrong in their doubts, and they're generally grifters.
Snowden just says whatever the Russian government tells him to say or he'll fall out of a window.
There's defense, and there's defenestration.
It wasn't just Russia who was saying that wasn't gonna happen, basically everyone outside the US thought it wouldn't happen cause it would be a really stupid thing to do. Then it turned out they did it and it was really stupid and I think a lot of people were surprised the US was telling the truth and it wasn't just fearmongering.