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Collapse Will Look Nothing Like in the Movies
(thehonestsorcerer.substack.com)
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this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024
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Collapse
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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.
Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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Nothing about our energy usage is unsustainable, yet. Just our energy sources. We have the technological ability to replace the majority or our petroleum based fuels with electricity or bio-fuels, but we don't because the cost and supply of oil is very cheap and very abundant. When that is no-longer the case there will be a period of stagnated growth while various industries are bailed out and cannibalize each other and probably a few million people perish unnecessarily, but for the rich, they will be almost untouched.
Of course the above is just under-capitalism. A government that prioritized people over profit could make the transition off of oil with much less population fallout. Who knows if such a government will ever exist though. I guess China is close, but still not good enough.
What about the little elephant in the room global warming?
If we continue to wait until oil is too expensive we are going to be very far down the "earth is pretty fucking hot" timeline
Oh for sure. Global warming isn't even being addressed, but I was referring to the article which explicitly isn't talking about global warming, it's talking about energy/minerals/etc
That timeline is now effectively unavoidable due to the phase change in the planetary system Earth we've triggered through our initial greenhouse gas injection pulse. The pulse itself is self-limiting, it began mostly by 1950 and will be rather advanced into its tail phase by 2050. Only about a century's worth of a massive anthropogenic release. Whatever happens then is out of our hands. It arguably never was in our hands: human ensemble behavior is effectively deterministic.