Investors rage at allegations bank broke its climate pledge to raise funds for mining giant

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Abstract

The growth rate of the atmospheric abundance of methane (CH4) reached a record high of 15.4 ppb yr−1 between 2020 and 2022, but the mechanisms driving the accelerated CH4 growth have so far been unclear. In this work, we use measurements of the 13C:12C ratio of CH4 (expressed as δ13CCH4) from NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and a box model to investigate potential drivers for the rapid CH4 growth. These measurements show that the record-high CH4 growth in 2020–2022 was accompanied by a sharp decline in δ13CCH4, indicating that the increase in CH4 abundance was mainly driven by increased emissions from microbial sources such as wetlands, waste, and agriculture. We use our box model to reject increasing fossil fuel emissions or decreasing hydroxyl radical sink as the dominant driver for increasing global methane abundance.

Global average surface temperatures shattered all-time records in 2023 at 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above pre-industrial levels (WMO 2024). Worsened by climate change-induced drought, Canadian wildfires burned 18.5 million hectares, nearly three-times more land area than in any previous year on record (NRC 2023). Parts of the Amazon River reached their lowest levels in 120 years of data-keeping and, in places, recorded surface water temperatures near 40 °C (Rodrigues 2023). The world has reached the threshold of a 1.5 °C increase in global average surface temperature and is only beginning to experience the full consequences.

Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. It contributed 0.5 °C of warming in the 2010s relative to the late 1800s—two-thirds as much warming as CO2 (IPCC 2021). It is also far more potent than CO2 ton for ton, with a global warming potential (GWP) >80 and 30 times more than CO2 for the first twenty years and century after release, respectively (Forster et al 2021).

Methane is rising faster in relative terms than any major greenhouse gas and is now 2.6-fold higher than in pre-industrial times. Global average methane concentrations reached 1931 parts per billion (ppb) in January of 2024 (Lan et al 2024). Annual increases in methane are also accelerating for reasons that are debated. Global methane concentrations rose by 15, 18, 13, and 10 ppb each year from 2020 through 2023, respectively, the second, first, fourth, and fourteenth largest increases since the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) methane time series began in 1983 (Lan et al 2024).

The Global Carbon Project updates its Global Methane Budget (GMB) every few years (Saunois et al 2016, 2020, 2024). The GMB integrates results of: (1) bottom-up (BU) estimates based on process-based models for estimating wetland surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations, and (2) top-down (TD) CH4 emission estimates based on atmospheric observations and an inverse-modeling framework. Here, we summarize new estimates of the GMB based on the new GMB (Saunois et al 2024). We estimate CH4 sources and sinks for the periods 2000–2002 and 2018–2020, as well as for the most-recent year (2020), the last year that full global TD and BU methane datasets are available. We compare 3 year-average estimates to smooth the inter-annual variability signals from climatic variability such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) that influence natural emissions from wetlands and other ecosystems, as well as from the chemical sink.

We provide insights on data for methane sources and sinks globally and for the geographical regions and economic sectors whose emissions have changed the most since 2000. We also provide additional data on changes in recent years using satellite-based inversions using the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) (e.g. Yu et al 2023).

Massive wildfires that killed at least 32 people and scorched an area nearly double the size of Seoul in late March could become more common under human-driven climate change, scientists warn.

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• Mongabay article
• study cited: summary and full PDF

• Coral restoration is vastly outpaced by degradation, while intensifying climate stress, prohibitive costs, poor site selection and lack of coordination make large-scale restoration currently unviable, a new study has found.
• The scale-cost mismatch is staggering: Restoring just 1.4% of degraded coral could cost up to US$16.7 trillion, while current global funding is only US$258 million.
• The study found most projects assessed prioritize convenience over ecological value, restoring easily accessed reefs instead of climate-resilient or biologically strategic ones, undermining long-term outcomes.
• Researchers say standardized data and smarter planning are urgently needed to ensure that global coral restoration is scientifically informed and strategically targeted, and not merely symbolic.

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• A research team is drilling boreholes in Mount Everest’s Western Cwm to measure glacier temperatures and understand why Himalayan glaciers are warming and melting faster than expected.
• Data from the glacier could transform predictions of glacial retreat and future water supply across the Himalayan region.
• Findings from this deep-glacier monitoring effort could improve climate modelling and glacial melt forecasts, offering critical insights during a time of rapidly retreating glaciers and global freshwater stress.

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Scientists on Union glacier in Antarctica fear the region is reaching a dangerous tipping point.

The period from 2022 to 2024 recorded the largest three-year loss of glacier mass ever documented.

According to scientific bodies including the World Meteorological Organization, rising temperatures are causing the Antarctic ice sheet to melt at an accelerated rate. If global temperature rises exceed 2C, large portions – including the Union glacier – may reach tipping points, resulting in irreversible retreat.

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Humid heat is related to heat stress, occurring when environmental conditions overwhelm the body's ability to cool itself. Severe heat stress leads to an increase in the core body temperature of 3°C or more and can cause confusion, seizures, and loss of consciousness. If not treated promptly, severe heat stress can lead to muscle damage, major organ failure, and death.

Lead author of the study Dr. Lawrence Jackson, a Research Fellow in the School of Earth and Environment, said, "With climate change driving more frequent and intense humid heat events, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions, the risks to vulnerable populations and outdoor workers are increasing.

Co-author John Marsham, a Professor of Atmospheric Science in the School of Earth and Environment, added, "Our results focus on the daily timescale for these heat waves. An obvious next step would be to extend our analysis to hourly time scales which might allow us to work towards near real-time predictions with all the benefits that it would bring to vulnerable communities."

The study: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-58694-6

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• phys.org article
• Nature study as webpage and PDF

• A resident population of blue whales has for many years lived in the coastal waters of Sri Lanka, but in recent years sightings of the animals have declined rapidly.
• With multiple pressures on these massive creatures — from ship traffic on one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, to disturbance from whale tourism, pollution and surface sea temperature rise and climate change — there are several possible factors for the disappearance of the whales.
• Sri Lanka’s leading marine researchers agree that increasing sea temperatures in the North Indian Ocean, warming at the fastest rate of any of the world’s oceans, have likely pushed the whales to new waters.

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Pushed to the brink by heat and injustice, South Asia’s workers demand reparations from fossil fuel corporations.

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• A new report has found that protected areas and Indigenous territories in the Amazon store more aboveground carbon than the rest of the rainforest.
• Protected areas and Indigenous territories were also found to serve as significant carbon sinks between 2013 and 2022, absorbing 257 million metric tons of carbon dioxide.
• Protected areas in Colombia, Brazil, Suriname and French Guiana were found to be significant carbon sinks.
• The report underscores the need to protect these areas that aren’t currently threatened by deforestation as they play a critical role in offsetting emissions from other parts of the forest.

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• article
• report cited

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In Brazil, the Jequitinhonha Valley, where the four Maxakali territories are located, has suffered a dramatic rise in temperatures in recent years. Twenty Brazilian cities registered temperatures five degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) higher than the average daily maximum. The city of Araçua even shattered the record for the hottest temperature in Brazil’s history in November of that year. More than 85 percent of the Atlantic Forest has been destroyed. In Minas Gerais, experts estimate, less than eight percent remains. Brazil's dictatorship set the stage for even greater destruction of the region's tropical forests. In less than nine months, 24,475 wildfires were tallied — far exceeding the previous record high in the whole of 2021. Grass fires can spread four times as quickly as forest fires, leading the Maxakali to nickname the invasive plant “kerosene”. Some experts consider the Atlantic Forest to be regionally extinct. Singing organises life in Maxakali villages: music is used to cure illness, teach history or transmit practical instructions. Twelve musical canons, distinct in grammar and lexicon, total about 360 hours of song. Contained in the lyrics are hundreds of species of flora and fauna now extinct in the territory. Nursery caretakers sing to seeds as they are buried. The song lyrics help participants remember the ecological knowledge of their ancestors. Since its inception in 2023, the Hmhi project has planted over 60 hectares (148 acres) of fruit trees and 383 acres of Atlantic Forest vegetation. Programme participants have organised themselves into a provisional fire brigade.

Grass.

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The Trump administration aims to make fossil fuels cheap—so cheap they wouldn’t be worth extracting. “‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth,” one oil executive has said.

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• web.archive.org
• archive.today
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What was once considered rare has become alarmingly common, as climate change accelerates the frequency and severity of such events,” said an editorial in the Pakistani newspaper Dawn. The country “remains woefully unprepared for the escalating climate crisis”, it said.

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Brazilian prosecutors are calling for the cancellation of the largest carbon credit deal in the Amazon Rainforest, saying it breaks national law and risks harming Indigenous communities. The 1 billion real ($175 million) contract, signed last year by the state of Pará, promises to sell up to 12 million metric tons of forest-based carbon credits to the LEAF Coalition, comprised of the U.S., U.K. and Norwegian governments, and companies like Amazon, Bayer, H&M and Walmart. Prosecutors allege that the deal violates a law passed two months after its signing that bans the future sale of carbon credits, characterizing it as “an extractive and colonialist” form of negotiating and privatizing traditional territories.

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• The “Forest 500 Report 2025” by Global Canopy reveals that only 3% of major companies with influence over forest-risk commodities are taking adequate action on deforestation, with beef identified as the biggest driver
• The assessment identified 24 “persistent laggards” that have never made any deforestation commitments despite a decade of evaluation, while some companies like meatpacking giant JBS are backtracking on previous pledges.
• Only 9% of companies promise zero tolerance for violence against forest defenders, despite more than 2,000 people being killed while protecting land or environment since 2012, highlighting the gap between environmental and human rights commitments.
• The European Union Deforestation Regulation taking effect at the end of 2025 will require companies to prove their products aren’t linked to deforestation before selling in EU markets, potentially driving meaningful corporate action ahead of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil in November.

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