Archived link

Fed-up North Dakotans, led by a group of women calling themselves the BadAss Grandmas, voted to amend the constitution and establish a state Ethics Commission six years ago. Their goal was to investigate and stop unethical conduct by public officials.

But the watchdog agency has achieved less than the advocates had hoped, undermined in large part by the Legislature the commission is charged with overseeing, an investigation [...] has found.

The commission has not substantiated any of the 81 complaints it has received. It has dismissed 47, most because it lacked the authority to investigate them. Thirty complaints are pending, some for more than a year. Numerous tips don’t get investigated because the agency can’t proceed without a formal complaint, and complainants have said they fear retaliation if they file one, the commission’s executive director said.

“I certainly was hoping for something more rapid,” said Carol Sawicki, one of the North Dakota residents who sponsored the ballot initiative that created the commission. Creating an ethical culture in government is “going to take time,” said Sawicki, who is also treasurer of the state’s League of Women Voters branch. “Much more time than I wanted it to.”

[...]

Ethics reform advocates say a vigorous commission is crucial in a state where politics and the energy industry are intertwined. A North Dakota Monitor and ProPublica investigation last year detailed how Gov. Kelly Armstrong, who has extensive ties to the oil and gas industry, could face significant conflicts of interest as chair of two state bodies that regulate the industry. Armstrong said in an interview last year that he doesn’t believe his ties will present a conflict of interest, but rather that his experience will benefit the state.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17941012

Dozens of sea mammals have been found dead since last month's Russian oil tanker spill in the Black Sea, a dolphin rescue center said Sunday, as authorities raced to contain the disaster.

The spill began on December 15, when two aging Russian tankers were caught in a storm off the Kerch Strait linking Crimea to southern Russia.

One sank and the other ran aground, pouring around 2,400 tonnes of a heavy fuel oil called mazut into the surrounding waters, authorities estimate.

Russia's Delfa center, which rescues and rehabilitates dolphins, said it had recorded 61 dead cetaceans since the incident, 32 of whom "most likely" died due to the spill.

Cetaceans are a type of aquatic mammal that includes whales, dolphins and porpoises.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17941012

Dozens of sea mammals have been found dead since last month's Russian oil tanker spill in the Black Sea, a dolphin rescue center said Sunday, as authorities raced to contain the disaster.

The spill began on December 15, when two aging Russian tankers were caught in a storm off the Kerch Strait linking Crimea to southern Russia.

One sank and the other ran aground, pouring around 2,400 tonnes of a heavy fuel oil called mazut into the surrounding waters, authorities estimate.

Russia's Delfa center, which rescues and rehabilitates dolphins, said it had recorded 61 dead cetaceans since the incident, 32 of whom "most likely" died due to the spill.

Cetaceans are a type of aquatic mammal that includes whales, dolphins and porpoises.

[...]

Dozens of sea mammals have been found dead since last month's Russian oil tanker spill in the Black Sea, a dolphin rescue center said Sunday, as authorities raced to contain the disaster.

The spill began on December 15, when two aging Russian tankers were caught in a storm off the Kerch Strait linking Crimea to southern Russia.

One sank and the other ran aground, pouring around 2,400 tonnes of a heavy fuel oil called mazut into the surrounding waters, authorities estimate.

Russia's Delfa center, which rescues and rehabilitates dolphins, said it had recorded 61 dead cetaceans since the incident, 32 of whom "most likely" died due to the spill.

Cetaceans are a type of aquatic mammal that includes whales, dolphins and porpoises.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17940483

Archived link

Putin’s Booming War Economy Poised for Soft, Bumpy Landing: The invasion of Ukraine triggered an economic boom in Russia built on the back of government stimulus. Almost three years on, there are gathering signs the bill is about to come due.

The mood in Moscow and other cities remains upbeat with packed restaurants and busy luxury stores, but a combination of record-high interest rates and persistent inflation is increasingly threatening forecasts for another year of slower, but still war-fueled growth. “A relatively good period for the Russian economy, which was based on previously accumulated resources, is over,” said Oleg Vyugin, an economist and former top central bank official. “High inflation eats away at all that seemingly short-lived success.”

On top of that, Russia is confronted with sanctions, a recently weakened currency, a muddied outlook for oil prices and the prospect that its biggest trading partner, China, won’t shake off significant economic troubles of its own.

The central bank is forecasting a sharp decline in growth in 2025 to as low as 0.5%, down from an estimated 3.5%-4% last year, and sees inflation returning to its 4% target only in 2026.

While the Economy Ministry’s outlook is more rosy at 2.5% growth this year, Putin said last month that a cooling economy was part of the government’s plan as it aims to “stabilize” inflation.

[...]

Any pain from rising prices is being felt unevenly among Russians in part because a labor shortage has pushed up wages. “If we talk about the middle class, it feels fine now,” said Sergey Dmitrieyev, an IT specialist from Moscow. “Less well-off people are feeling more stressed.”

[...]

The record borrowing costs have started to take a toll. Russian car dealerships are facing a potential wave of bankruptcies, according to the Autostat research group.

The agriculture sector is also feeling the squeeze. “The risk of bankruptcies is rising along with the key rate,” said Eduard Zernin, who served as the head of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters. “When farmers need to fund the sowing in the spring, we will see if those risks materialized.”

Even the largest companies are reviewing their strategies. State-controlled pipeline operator Transneft PJSC and Russian Railways JSC sharply cut investment programs partly due to borrowing costs.

Private businesses like steelmaker Severstal PJSC and miner MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC are also trimming expenditures, while United Co. Rusal International PJSC, a top aluminum producer, is considering cutting output by more than 10%, citing the economic situation as one of the reasons.

[...]

"[2025] will be “a year of belt tightening,” said Sofya Donets, an economist at T-Investments. “Creditors win, and borrowers can hardly imagine how they will live.”

[...]

A collapse in the cost of crude is one of the biggest risks to the economy in 2025, according to Donets. If the price goes any lower, the state will have to make sacrifices, she said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine ended transit of natural gas across its territory, and while the economic effect will likely be muted, it could still cost Russia about 0.2% to 0.3% of gross domestic product, according to various analyst estimates.

[...]

“The main risks for Russia are problems with payments,” said Alexey Vedev, a former deputy economy minister.

Payment problems and a foreign currency deficit have made it more difficult for Russian business to avail themselves of a relatively cheap borrowing option — yuan-denominated bonds — issuance of which slowed in the second half of the year.

[...]

“The risk of a recession is also the highest in the last three years,” Donets said. “In some quarters, growth may be negative next year. For now, our main forecast is still growth by the end of next year, slightly below 1%.”

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17940483

Archived link

Putin’s Booming War Economy Poised for Soft, Bumpy Landing: The invasion of Ukraine triggered an economic boom in Russia built on the back of government stimulus. Almost three years on, there are gathering signs the bill is about to come due.

The mood in Moscow and other cities remains upbeat with packed restaurants and busy luxury stores, but a combination of record-high interest rates and persistent inflation is increasingly threatening forecasts for another year of slower, but still war-fueled growth. “A relatively good period for the Russian economy, which was based on previously accumulated resources, is over,” said Oleg Vyugin, an economist and former top central bank official. “High inflation eats away at all that seemingly short-lived success.”

On top of that, Russia is confronted with sanctions, a recently weakened currency, a muddied outlook for oil prices and the prospect that its biggest trading partner, China, won’t shake off significant economic troubles of its own.

The central bank is forecasting a sharp decline in growth in 2025 to as low as 0.5%, down from an estimated 3.5%-4% last year, and sees inflation returning to its 4% target only in 2026.

While the Economy Ministry’s outlook is more rosy at 2.5% growth this year, Putin said last month that a cooling economy was part of the government’s plan as it aims to “stabilize” inflation.

[...]

Any pain from rising prices is being felt unevenly among Russians in part because a labor shortage has pushed up wages. “If we talk about the middle class, it feels fine now,” said Sergey Dmitrieyev, an IT specialist from Moscow. “Less well-off people are feeling more stressed.”

[...]

The record borrowing costs have started to take a toll. Russian car dealerships are facing a potential wave of bankruptcies, according to the Autostat research group.

The agriculture sector is also feeling the squeeze. “The risk of bankruptcies is rising along with the key rate,” said Eduard Zernin, who served as the head of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters. “When farmers need to fund the sowing in the spring, we will see if those risks materialized.”

Even the largest companies are reviewing their strategies. State-controlled pipeline operator Transneft PJSC and Russian Railways JSC sharply cut investment programs partly due to borrowing costs.

Private businesses like steelmaker Severstal PJSC and miner MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC are also trimming expenditures, while United Co. Rusal International PJSC, a top aluminum producer, is considering cutting output by more than 10%, citing the economic situation as one of the reasons.

[...]

"[2025] will be “a year of belt tightening,” said Sofya Donets, an economist at T-Investments. “Creditors win, and borrowers can hardly imagine how they will live.”

[...]

A collapse in the cost of crude is one of the biggest risks to the economy in 2025, according to Donets. If the price goes any lower, the state will have to make sacrifices, she said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine ended transit of natural gas across its territory, and while the economic effect will likely be muted, it could still cost Russia about 0.2% to 0.3% of gross domestic product, according to various analyst estimates.

[...]

“The main risks for Russia are problems with payments,” said Alexey Vedev, a former deputy economy minister.

Payment problems and a foreign currency deficit have made it more difficult for Russian business to avail themselves of a relatively cheap borrowing option — yuan-denominated bonds — issuance of which slowed in the second half of the year.

[...]

“The risk of a recession is also the highest in the last three years,” Donets said. “In some quarters, growth may be negative next year. For now, our main forecast is still growth by the end of next year, slightly below 1%.”

Archived link

Putin’s Booming War Economy Poised for Soft, Bumpy Landing: The invasion of Ukraine triggered an economic boom in Russia built on the back of government stimulus. Almost three years on, there are gathering signs the bill is about to come due.

The mood in Moscow and other cities remains upbeat with packed restaurants and busy luxury stores, but a combination of record-high interest rates and persistent inflation is increasingly threatening forecasts for another year of slower, but still war-fueled growth. “A relatively good period for the Russian economy, which was based on previously accumulated resources, is over,” said Oleg Vyugin, an economist and former top central bank official. “High inflation eats away at all that seemingly short-lived success.”

On top of that, Russia is confronted with sanctions, a recently weakened currency, a muddied outlook for oil prices and the prospect that its biggest trading partner, China, won’t shake off significant economic troubles of its own.

The central bank is forecasting a sharp decline in growth in 2025 to as low as 0.5%, down from an estimated 3.5%-4% last year, and sees inflation returning to its 4% target only in 2026.

While the Economy Ministry’s outlook is more rosy at 2.5% growth this year, Putin said last month that a cooling economy was part of the government’s plan as it aims to “stabilize” inflation.

[...]

Any pain from rising prices is being felt unevenly among Russians in part because a labor shortage has pushed up wages. “If we talk about the middle class, it feels fine now,” said Sergey Dmitrieyev, an IT specialist from Moscow. “Less well-off people are feeling more stressed.”

[...]

The record borrowing costs have started to take a toll. Russian car dealerships are facing a potential wave of bankruptcies, according to the Autostat research group.

The agriculture sector is also feeling the squeeze. “The risk of bankruptcies is rising along with the key rate,” said Eduard Zernin, who served as the head of the Russian Union of Grain Exporters. “When farmers need to fund the sowing in the spring, we will see if those risks materialized.”

Even the largest companies are reviewing their strategies. State-controlled pipeline operator Transneft PJSC and Russian Railways JSC sharply cut investment programs partly due to borrowing costs.

Private businesses like steelmaker Severstal PJSC and miner MMC Norilsk Nickel PJSC are also trimming expenditures, while United Co. Rusal International PJSC, a top aluminum producer, is considering cutting output by more than 10%, citing the economic situation as one of the reasons.

[...]

"[2025] will be “a year of belt tightening,” said Sofya Donets, an economist at T-Investments. “Creditors win, and borrowers can hardly imagine how they will live.”

[...]

A collapse in the cost of crude is one of the biggest risks to the economy in 2025, according to Donets. If the price goes any lower, the state will have to make sacrifices, she said.

Meanwhile, Ukraine ended transit of natural gas across its territory, and while the economic effect will likely be muted, it could still cost Russia about 0.2% to 0.3% of gross domestic product, according to various analyst estimates.

[...]

“The main risks for Russia are problems with payments,” said Alexey Vedev, a former deputy economy minister.

Payment problems and a foreign currency deficit have made it more difficult for Russian business to avail themselves of a relatively cheap borrowing option — yuan-denominated bonds — issuance of which slowed in the second half of the year.

[...]

“The risk of a recession is also the highest in the last three years,” Donets said. “In some quarters, growth may be negative next year. For now, our main forecast is still growth by the end of next year, slightly below 1%.”

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17939276

Archived link

“China’s economy has rebounded and is on an upward trajectory, with its GDP for the year expected to pass the 130 trillion yuan mark,” Xi Jinping said in his 2025 New Year message.

On December 26, China revised upward its gross domestic product figure for 2023 by 3.4 trillion yuan, a 2.7% adjustment. That puts the size of the Chinese economy that year at 129.4 trillion yuan or $17.73 trillion. Xi’s target for the size of the economy, therefore, is easy to reach.

There is, as usual, great optimism displayed by Beijing leaders about the size of the Chinese economy. Few of the official numbers make sense, however, as reported figures are hard to reconcile with, among other things, large cash outflows from the country.

For instance, China experienced the largest outflow from its financial markets in November, as Chinese banks wired $45.7 billion offshore. The amount, announced by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, includes repatriation of foreign investment in China and Chinese residents’ purchases of offshore securities.

[...] The Wall Street Journal in late October reported that, based on its calculations, “as much as $254 billion might have left China illicitly in the four quarters through the end of June.”

[...]

There is [...] long-standing pessimism about the Chinese economy. Everyone seems worried about, for instance, a debt crisis. There is, of course, much to fear, in part because no one really knows how much indebtedness China is carrying. Everyone can sense that the total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio is dangerously high, however. After taking into account the so-called “hidden debt” and adjusting for inflated GDP reports, the ratio could be, according to my estimate, 350%. A higher estimate—say, 400%—is also possible.

[...]

So far, the Communist Party—both during Hu Jintao’s and Xi Jinping’s rule—has not exhibited the political will necessary to enforce painful solutions. Its continual failure to resolve the debt situation has meant the government has had no option but to resort to short-term and superficial measures, such as more debt-fueled stimulus.

[...]

Evasion of currency controls [which is what Beijing is practicing] is getting harder, but it is occurring nonetheless as people do not believe what Xi and his officials say about the economy. “Weakness in the yuan and local stocks, as well as the nation’s wide interest-rate gap with the U.S., are raising the risk of a vicious cycle of capital outflows,” Bloomberg notes. The plunge in property prices—property accounts for about 70% of the wealth of the Chinese middle class—a sputtering economy, and a deep concern over Xi Jinping’s neo-Maoist policies all contribute to gloom.

“It’s a grim situation for Chinese people,” says Anne Stevenson-Yang, author of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy. The pessimism is encapsulated in the phrase “Doom Loop” economy. Many now say China has a “garbage economy.”

[...]

"A financial or political crisis still is possible if China’s huge debt overwhelms the banking system or if unemployment reaches such high levels that protests erupt nationally causing a major change in government policy," [another expert adds].

[...]

China has the means to solve its problems, but Xi Jinping is determined to pursue 1950s-type solutions that only aggravate the situation. Money, therefore, will continue to flow out.

Archived link

“China’s economy has rebounded and is on an upward trajectory, with its GDP for the year expected to pass the 130 trillion yuan mark,” Xi Jinping said in his 2025 New Year message.

On December 26, China revised upward its gross domestic product figure for 2023 by 3.4 trillion yuan, a 2.7% adjustment. That puts the size of the Chinese economy that year at 129.4 trillion yuan or $17.73 trillion. Xi’s target for the size of the economy, therefore, is easy to reach.

There is, as usual, great optimism displayed by Beijing leaders about the size of the Chinese economy. Few of the official numbers make sense, however, as reported figures are hard to reconcile with, among other things, large cash outflows from the country.

For instance, China experienced the largest outflow from its financial markets in November, as Chinese banks wired $45.7 billion offshore. The amount, announced by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, includes repatriation of foreign investment in China and Chinese residents’ purchases of offshore securities.

[...] The Wall Street Journal in late October reported that, based on its calculations, “as much as $254 billion might have left China illicitly in the four quarters through the end of June.”

[...]

There is [...] long-standing pessimism about the Chinese economy. Everyone seems worried about, for instance, a debt crisis. There is, of course, much to fear, in part because no one really knows how much indebtedness China is carrying. Everyone can sense that the total-country-debt-to-GDP ratio is dangerously high, however. After taking into account the so-called “hidden debt” and adjusting for inflated GDP reports, the ratio could be, according to my estimate, 350%. A higher estimate—say, 400%—is also possible.

[...]

So far, the Communist Party—both during Hu Jintao’s and Xi Jinping’s rule—has not exhibited the political will necessary to enforce painful solutions. Its continual failure to resolve the debt situation has meant the government has had no option but to resort to short-term and superficial measures, such as more debt-fueled stimulus.

[...]

Evasion of currency controls [which is what Beijing is practicing] is getting harder, but it is occurring nonetheless as people do not believe what Xi and his officials say about the economy. “Weakness in the yuan and local stocks, as well as the nation’s wide interest-rate gap with the U.S., are raising the risk of a vicious cycle of capital outflows,” Bloomberg notes. The plunge in property prices—property accounts for about 70% of the wealth of the Chinese middle class—a sputtering economy, and a deep concern over Xi Jinping’s neo-Maoist policies all contribute to gloom.

“It’s a grim situation for Chinese people,” says Anne Stevenson-Yang, author of Wild Ride: A Short History of the Opening and Closing of the Chinese Economy. The pessimism is encapsulated in the phrase “Doom Loop” economy. Many now say China has a “garbage economy.”

[...]

"A financial or political crisis still is possible if China’s huge debt overwhelms the banking system or if unemployment reaches such high levels that protests erupt nationally causing a major change in government policy," [another expert adds].

[...]

China has the means to solve its problems, but Xi Jinping is determined to pursue 1950s-type solutions that only aggravate the situation. Money, therefore, will continue to flow out.

Archiv-Link

Nähe zur russischen Regierung ein "veritables Problem“: Deutsche Sicherheitspolitiker sehen die Zusammenarbeit mit Österreichs Geheimdienst gefährdet, sollte die rechtsextreme FPÖ dort die künftige Regierung anführen

Deutsche Sicherheitspolitiker sehen die Zusammenarbeit mit Österreichs Geheimdienst gefährdet, sollte die rechtsextreme FPÖ die künftige Regierung anführen. Die Nähe der FPÖ zur russischen Regierung stelle „ein durchaus veritables Problem dar“, sagte der Vorsitzende des Geheimdienste-Kontrollgremiums des Bundestages, Konstantin von Notz (Grüne), dem Handelsblatt. Es stehe „die Integrität der Zusammenarbeit der europäischen Sicherheitsbehörden infrage“.

Der SPD-Außenpolitiker Ralf Stegner hält Konsequenzen für unerlässlich. „Die Zusammenarbeit mit Rechtsaußen-Regierungen und Putin-Freunden muss bei nachrichtendienstlicher Zusammenarbeit nahezu auf null zurückgefahren werden, wenn man keine unvertretbaren Sicherheitsrisiken einkalkulieren will“, sagte er dem Handelsblatt.

Ähnlich äußerte sich der CDU-Politiker Christoph de Vries, der ebenfalls dem Geheimdienstgremium angehört: „Mit Blick auf die engen Verflechtungen der FPÖ und der Dienste mit Russland in der Amtszeit Kickls als Innenminister sind Sorgen für die weitere Zusammenarbeit nicht unbegründet“, sagte er.

[...]

Archived link

[...]

In June, a panel of Wikipedia editors declared the Anti-Defamation League a “generally unreliable” source of information about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, limiting when the organization can be cited in Wikipedia articles. And there was an outcry this fall among some Jewish scholars and pro-Israel activists over edits to Wikipedia’s entry for Zionism to add references to “colonization.”

Wikipedia has also recently drawn ire from right-wing figures including Elon Musk, the billionaire who has been by President-elect Trump’s side during much of the transition. Musk posted on X (formerly Twitter) in December: “Stop donating to Wokepedia.”

A Heritage Foundation spokesperson said she was not able to answer questions about the organization’s work related to Wikipedia, which editors it was seeking to identify or how it sought to “target” them. The Wikimedia Foundation, which provides the infrastructure for Wikipedia, declined to comment.

The Heritage Foundation sent the pitch deck outlining the Wikipedia initiative to Jewish foundations and other prospective supporters of Project Esther, its roadmap for fighting antisemitism and anti-Zionism. The slideshow says the group’s “targeting methodologies” would include creating fake Wikipedia user accounts to try to trick editors into identifying themselves by sharing personal information or clicking on malicious tracking links that can identify people who click on them. It is unclear whether this has begun.

[...]

cross-posted from: https://beehaw.org/post/17936071

Archived link

Russian UMPK kits, which turn regular bombs into guided glide bombs, use components imported by bypassing sanctions. Although the trail initially seemed to lead to Taiwan, further investigations revealed that companies from China were collaborating with the Russians.

An investigation conducted by the InformNapalm group led to documents related to servo drives from the Taiwanese company TRC. Following their publication in the media, experts on sanctions and the Taiwanese public became involved in the matter. Vadym Labas explained in an extensive Facebook post that further facts had been uncovered, casting a completely new light on the whole issue.

Chinese companies are cooperating with Russia

The Taiwanese company TRC turns out to be a victim in this situation. In reality, the manufacturer of servo drives intended for the Russians was the Chinese factory KST Digital Technology Limited.

An investigation conducted by the InformNapalm group led to documents related to servo drives from the Taiwanese company TRC. Following their publication in the media, experts on sanctions and the Taiwanese public became involved in the matter. Vadym Labas explained in an extensive Facebook post that further facts had been uncovered, casting a completely new light on the whole issue. Chinese companies are cooperating with Russia

The Taiwanese company TRC turns out to be a victim in this situation. In reality, the manufacturer of servo drives intended for the Russians was the Chinese factory KST Digital Technology Limited.

A special scheme for transferring equipment to Russia was developed, where the crucial stages involved selling the produced servo drives to the fictitious Chinese company Kaiffeng Zhendaqian Technology (KZT), which then passed them to another fictitious company from China (UNIHUI INTERNATIONAL LIMITED). Here, illegal rebranding occurred to "impersonate" Taiwanese TRC.

Chinese servo drives in Russian bombs and drones

Vadym Labas noted that such a scheme is also used in other transactions that Russia seeks to conceal.

The latest investigation also covers the Chinese factory KST Digital Technology Limited, which supplies Russia with components needed to produce Shahed kamikaze drones. These were initially ordered from Iran but have been produced in Russia for several months now. In 2024, at least 10,000 Shahed drones might be produced in Putin's country. The drones, measuring about 11 feet in length, can carry loads of up to 88 pounds and accelerate to approximately 115 mph.

[...]