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this post was submitted on 20 Jan 2024
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This fund will last this year and depending on how much money Russia needs and the oil price next year as well. However nobody looses wars due to running out of money. You loose on the battlefield or due to the suffering of the population being to bad. The fund running empty just means average Russians will get worse government services and economic support is going to fall. If Putin cuts back too much, he has a revolution on his hands.
I think what he was trying to point out is that you should not expect a direct visible effect of the dwindling funds on the events on the battlefield. It will be much more indirect and delayed by month, maybe years.
A government can just print money. So looking at a governments budget does not reveal how long they last. It shows how they balance military and civilian spending.
I'd argue that Germany lost World War I due to ruining out of money. Some wars are lost due to attrition.
Financial attrition is a type of attrition
After WW1 Germany had more then enough money, but nothing to buy with it. Hard to say they ran out of money.
They started spending that money after starting the war, so it's use is related to the war in question. Thus, when they will run out, whatever they were paying for (war related) will stop getting money.
It might not be a direct financing of the battlefield activities, but while the victory will be in the battlefield, the biggest chunk of the battle actually happens in preparation and logistics.
In other words, I'm hopeful that this will have a major impact on the invader's ability to cause harm.