Editor’s summary

Climate warms or cools depending on whether the net energy flux from incoming solar radiation is respectively greater or less than that of outgoing long-wave radiation at the top of Earth’s atmosphere. Satellite data have shown that an energy imbalance producing warming has strengthened between 2001 and 2023. Myhre et al. show that climate models with low climate sensitivity do not reproduce that trend in Earth energy imbalance. Their finding means that increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases likely will cause even more warming than most current models predict. —Jesse Smith

Abstract

Climate forcings by greenhouse gases and aerosols cause an imbalance at the top of the atmosphere between the net incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation from Earth. This Earth energy imbalance has strengthened over the period 2001 to 2023 with satellite data. Here, we show that low climate sensitivity models fail to reproduce the trend in Earth energy imbalance, particularly in the individual longwave and shortwave contributions to the imbalance trend. The inability to produce a strong positive shortwave and strong negative longwave Earth energy imbalance trend is found to be a robust feature in the low climate sensitivity models, especially for models with a climate sensitivity below 2.5 kelvin. The negative longwave contribution to Earth energy imbalance is driven by surface temperature increases and is therefore most pronounced in high climate sensitivity models, whereas the shortwave contribution is generally positive and amplified by greater surface warming.

Abstract

Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Yet, little is known about the relationship between exposure to extreme events, subjective attribution of these events to climate change, and climate policy support, especially in the Global South. Combining large-scale natural and social science data from 68 countries (N = 71,922), we develop a measure of exposed population to extreme weather events and investigate whether exposure to extreme weather and subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change predict climate policy support. We find that most people support climate policies and link extreme weather events to climate change. Subjective attribution of extreme weather was positively associated with policy support for five widely discussed climate policies. However, exposure to most types of extreme weather event did not predict policy support. Overall, these results suggest that subjective attribution could facilitate climate policy support.

Voters nor their elected representatives not concerned?

Reform thinks Climate Change is a fraud and not enough people are voting Green to move the Overton Window.

So were stuck with locking up those few who protest a lack of action..

Abstract

Global surface warming has accelerated since around 2010, relative to the preceding half century1,2,3. This has coincided with East Asian efforts to reduce air pollution through restricted atmospheric aerosol and precursor emissions4,5. A direct link between the two has, however, not yet been established. Here we show, using a large set of simulations from eight Earth System Models, how a time-evolving 75% reduction in East Asian sulfate emissions partially unmasks greenhouse gas-driven warming and influences the spatial pattern of surface temperature change. We find a rapidly evolving global, annual mean warming of 0.07 ± 0.05 °C, sufficient to be a main driver of the uptick in global warming rate since 2010. We also find North-Pacific warming and a top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance that are qualitatively consistent with recent observations. East Asian aerosol cleanup is thus likely a key contributor to recent global warming acceleration and to Pacific warming trends.

One of the few stable glaciers in a warming world, Perito Moreno, in Santa Cruz province, Argentina, is now undergoing a possibly irreversible retreat, scientists say.

Over the past seven years, it has lost 1.92 sq km (0.74 sq miles) of ice cover and its thickness is decreasing by up to 8 metres (26 ft) a year.

For decades, Perito Moreno defied the global trend of glacial retreat, maintaining an exceptional balance between snow accumulation and melting. Its dramatic calving events, when massive blocks of ice crashed into Lago Argentino, became a symbol of natural wonder, drawing millions of visitors to southern Patagonia.

Is this disaster tourism emblamatic of human stupidity ? I see people saying they want to go to the Great Barrier Reef before it's conplelty fucked. Seems every year now there's some story in Greece and 1000s of tourists being evacuated becase of some wildfire or other. I see instead of visiting Portugal, Spain or Greece people are considering tourism in Norway etc,

Between pollution and GHG's destroying rhe biosphere, we make a place horrible, then move on and do the same thing, what is wrong with our species anon's ?

cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/24592966

More unfolding of this story, several posts we n here about it. I guess we're now in the finding out phase after we've fucked about.

New vision of South Australia's toxic algal bloom shows scores of dead fish lying in "dark neon green" waters, highlighting the extent of the ecological disaster unfolding underwater.

Abstract

Detecting tree cover is crucial for sustainable land management and climate mitigation. Here we develop an automatic detection algorithm using high-resolution satellite data (<5 m) to map pan-tropical tree cover (2015–2022), enabling identification and change analysis for previously undetected tree cover (PUTC). Our findings reveal that neglecting PUTC represents 17.31 ± 1.78% of the total pan-tropical tree cover. Tree cover net decreased by 61.05 ± 2.36 Mha in both forested areas (63.93%) and non-forested areas (36.07%) between 2015 and 2022. Intense changes in tree cover are primarily observed in regions with PUTC, where the World Cover dataset with a resolution of 10 m often fails to accurately detect tree cover. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis to quantify the contributions f climate factors and anthropogenic impacts (including human activities and land use cover change) to tree cover dynamics. Our findings indicate that 43.98% of tree cover gain is linked to increased precipitation, while 56.03% of tree cover loss is associated with anthropogenic impacts. These findings highlight the need to include undetected tree cover in strategies combating degradation, climate change, and promoting sustainability. Fine-scale mapping can improve biogeochemical cycles modeling and vegetation-climate interactions, improving global change understanding.